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IRIN – WNN EarthWATCH
(WNN/IRIN) AFAR/JOHANNESBURG, SOUTH AFRICA, SOUTHERN AFRICA: Momina Ali is a teenager in one of the toughest and hottest places on earth – Ethiopia’s Afar region where average annual temperatures hover around 35 degrees Celsius. Increasingly intermittent rainfall in her village, Anderkelo, means that every three or four days Momina takes a day off school to search for water. In future the chances are that Momina’s treks for water could take even longer, depending on how rising temperatures affect the rains around her village and hence its water table.
In 2015 global policymakers aim to take decisions which may affect the futures of people like Momina. The outcome of the December 2015 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) meeting in Paris, new development goals, and the successor to the Hyogo framework on natural hazards will be key.
The climate deal will only be implemented in 2020, according to an agreement countries adopted in Durban in 2011. It will be the culmination of almost two decades of international negotiations. But before that can happen, a draft deal needs to be prepared for the penultimate UNFCCC conference (COP20) in Lima, Peru, in December 2014.
“In an ideal world, the deal would be based on the premise that the biggest polluters agree to shoulder the greatest share of global emissions’ cuts, and commit to providing finance to support countries most affected by climate change – though presently governments are still a long way from agreeing to anything this ambitious or fair,” said Sven Harmeling, Care International climate change advocacy coordinator.
One crucial element involves discussions about how much money will be provided by each developed country to help poorer countries like Ethiopia adapt to higher temperatures and erratic rains. The deal, if most poor countries have their way, should help Momina’s village access technology that could: make it easier to find water closer to home; provide early drought or other warnings; and open up new channels of support to help tackle climate-related losses, for instance, if people need to migrate.
A key question is how much each country would be willing to cut back on its greenhouse gas emissions to keep global temperature rise to less than 1.5 degrees by the turn of the century.
“Momina, in all probability will have to move,” said scientist Saleemul Huq, a senior research fellow with the International Institute for Environment and Development and a member of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). “An increase in temperature over the next 20 to 30 years has already been locked in, regardless of the outcome in Paris on reducing emissions. People like Momina who are living on the edge will have to move in less than a decade.”
But her family can hope to get some compensation for the “loss and damage” to their lives on account of rising temperatures should an appropriate decision be taken in Paris, said Huq. The decision on how much to cut emissions will have a long-term impact on the earth “beyond 50 years, to a 100 years”, he said.
IRIN surveys progress hitherto in relation to climate change and vulnerable communities.
The need for a regular flow of adequate funds and technological support for adaptation has been an emotionally fraught issue in the negotiations.
Some developing countries are considering including pledges on their planned adaptation actions in their intended Nationally Determined Contributions (iNDCs), the primary focus of which will be the amount of emissions they intend to cut beyond 2020. Many countries are stressing the importance of National Adaptation Plans (NAPs), which will form the basis for drawing funds from rich countries.
The proposal by the African Group, to establish a global adaptation goal which would ensure adaptation support is provided based on expected levels of global warming, would be a positive step, said Harmeling.
“The promise of finance for adaptation is like the perpetually-dangling carrot that the developing countries can never reach no matter how much they do. They are being made to look like donkeys by the rich nations who have demanded adaptation policies, plans, and actions, but have reneged on their promise to pay for it,” said Harjeet Singh of ActionAid.
Support for agriculture, which is seen both as a victim and a cause of climate change, is another vexed issue.
Agriculture is the cause of emissions of particularly damaging greenhouses gases, such as nitrous oxide and methane. The IPCC estimated in 2007 that agriculture accounted for 13.5 percent of all man-made greenhouse gas emissions. The latest IPCC assessment (dated 2014) bunches emissions from agriculture and forestry and other changes in land-use such as deforestation and says they account for 25 percent of man-made emissions.
But climate change also threatens agriculture, which most developing countries’ populations rely on for income, and global food security. The 2014 IPCC assessment indicates that where local temperatures rise beyond one degree Celsius, yields of major staples such as wheat, rice and maize will drop by up to 2 percent per decade from 2030 onwards; and rising temperatures and erratic rains will contribute to an increase in food prices of up to 85 percent by 2050. Many poor farmers are already experiencing the impact of increasingly variable rainfall.